Poland’s new-home sales jumped 25% in August, but reservations are doing part of the work

Preliminary monitoring from Otodom Analytics shows more than 4,300 developer homes sold in August across Warsaw, Krakow, Tricity, Wroclaw, Poznan, Lodz and Katowice. That was 25% more than in August 2025, an unusually strong result for a month that normally sits near the seasonal low point.

Reservations make the headline harder to read

The main complication is the reservation pipeline. Otodom says monthly new reservations have remained above 2,400 since February. A reservation removes a unit from the immediately available pool, but it is not the same thing as a final sale: a buyer can still withdraw and the home can return to market.

That does not make the August number weak. It does mean the next few months matter. If a high share of reservations converts into signed transactions, the market is showing durable demand. If cancellations rise, part of the apparent acceleration will unwind.

Sales are stronger while asking-price growth cools

The broader 2026 picture is still firm. Otodom reports more than 32,000 developer-home sales since January, about 40% more than in the same period of 2025. At the same time, annual growth in average asking prices stayed below 10% in all seven tracked cities at the start of September.

That combination matters. Faster sales do not automatically imply a return to double-digit price inflation. The mix of new supply, mortgage affordability and the conversion rate of reservations will determine whether August was the start of another demand leg or simply a strong month inside a more balanced market.

What to watch next

The cleanest follow-up indicators are reservation-to-sale conversion, new project launches and mortgage demand. Estate Briefing’s market desk keeps Poland separate from faster-moving price stories elsewhere in the region because primary sales, resale activity and credit can move at different speeds.